MATT VOLZ

Editor in Chief

It’s the final week of the NLL’s regular season, and one thing is guaranteed — the Bandits are going back to the playoffs.

They locked up a spot with a 15-5 beatdown of the Vancouver Warriors two weeks ago, and a seven-game win streak has given Buffalo the chance to earn a home playoff game.

Beyond that, it’s still possible for the Bandits to earn the league’s top overall seed.

It’s not all that likely, but it is possible.

Entering the final weekend, the Warriors and Colorado Mammoth are tied for first in the league, with both teams holding 12-5 records.

The Bandits are in a three-way tie for third with the Toronto Rock and Saskatchewan Rush, with all three teams holding steady at 11-6.

The Georgia Swarm are the proverbial “wild card” of the final week’s playoff picture, as they’ve played one less game than everyone else.

They enter a doubleheader against the Rochester Knighthawks at 10-6, currently good for sixth place.

Let’s take a look at some scenarios for the Bandits heading into the weekend.

To clinch a home playoff game in the first round:

• Win at Oshawa OR
• Georgia loss in either game vs. Rochester

Yes, it’s that simple for the Bandits to start the postseason at home.

They’re in Oshawa this weekend for a matchup in which they’ll be a heavy favorite.

The FireWolves enter the weekend already eliminated from playoff contention at 5-12, so they’ll just be looking to build some positive momentum towards next season.

All the Bandits need is a win in tomorrow night’s game to ensure that KeyBank Center will see the opening round of the NLL playoffs.

If the FireWolves manage to pull off an upset, it’s still possible for Buffalo to be at home in the first round, but they’d need some help.

The Swarm and Knighthawks have a doubleheader this weekend, facing off at 4 p.m. tomorrow in Georgia and 3 p.m. Sunday in Rochester.

If Georgia loses either of those two games, it’ll guarantee a first-round home playoff game regardless of what happens in Buffalo’s game against Oshawa.

However, there is another scenario in which Bandits fans may be rooting for Georgia to win both games.

It’s a wild and unlikely scenario, but let’s dive in.

To clinch the top overall seed:

• Win at Oshawa AND
• Calgary win over Colorado AND
• Philadelphia win over Vancouver AND
• Georgia win in BOTH games vs. Rochester

It’s a lot, I know.

Not only is that a lot of specific results that need to happen, but those are also some unlikely upsets.

For starters, the Bandits need the league’s bottom two teams to upset the league’s top two teams.

The Calgary Roughnecks and Philadelphia Wings have both limped to 5-12 records this season.

Nobody has had it worse than the Wings, though, as the City of Brotherly Love is losing its team for the second time in a decade.

Buffalo is hoping the Wings go out with a bang, as they face the Warriors in Vancouver tomorrow night.

They’re also hoping Tanner Cook, Tyler Pace and the Roughnecks will pull off the upset against the Mammoth.

The Roughnecks have home advantage in this game, and Cook and Pace could give Dillon Ward and the Colorado defense some fits.

If both of those upsets happen, and if Buffalo takes care of business against Oshawa, the attention turns to the Swarm-Knighthawks doubleheader.

Oddly enough, the Bandits would be rooting for Georgia to win both games.

That seems counterintuitive, as two Georgia wins would draw the Swarm into a tie with Buffalo.

But allow me to explain.

There’s one game I didn’t mention yet, and that’s the contest in Saskatoon between the Rock and Rush.

Both teams enter play at 11-6, and whoever wins will tie the other teams at the top.

If the above scenario plays out, it would be a tie between the Bandits, Mammoth, Warriors, Swarm and whoever wins the Rock vs. Rush game.

This is where Buffalo’s strong performance against top teams pays off.

In the event of a five-way tie, Buffalo would emerge on top because of head-to-head winning percentage.

Against those five teams, the Bandits have a combined 6-2 record this season.

To this point in the season, that means that more than half of the team’s wins have come over some of the best opponents in the NLL.

That should come as no surprise, given Buffalo’s consistent playoff success over the past half decade.

Depending on how the weekend goes, they might find themselves in Banditland with a chance to bring their fanbase more postseason magic.

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Stats for this story were provided by nllstats.com, a league-wide database run by NLL writer Graeme Perrow.

Check out his commentary on nllchatter.com as well as his updates on X (@GraemePerrow).